#1 Introducing… Inside Labour
Welcome to Inside Labour, the first of a new regular political memo from Labour Together’s Chief Executive, Jonathan Ashworth. We’ll bring you exclusive snippets of our polling and political analysis, share lessons for Labour campaigners from across the UK and abroad, and offer our take on some of the big issues of the week.
This week, we’ll be sharing our latest polling of voters who switched from Tory to Labour at the last general election. In our recent report, ‘How Labour Won,’ we identified these swing voters as the decisive group for Keir Starmer’s victory. Jonathan will also give his view on the new Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch.
The Budget is a Winner with Tory-Labour switchers
Ahead of the Budget we set three tests: 1) Does it fix the mess in the broken public finances Labour inherited? 2) Does it start the hard work of investment and reform of the NHS? 3) Does it invest in the infrastructure of the country?
Rachel Reeves delivered on all three. And, voters agree.
New polling we commissioned reveals key swing voters - those who switched from voting Tory in 2019 to Labour in 2024 - say Rachel Reeves was right to put the NHS front and centre of her first Budget.
The polling, conducted by YouGov, shows that a majority of these voters believe that the tax rises announced on Wednesday were ‘necessary’ (56%) and what they expected to see from a Labour government (also 56%).
The polling included a conjoint experiment which tested policy areas people would have liked to see prioritised by the Chancellor in the October Budget. The conjoint shows the NHS as the clear winner, being picked 79% of the time it was shown.
Crucially, investment in our healthcare system is also the top choice among those who switched from Conservative to Labour in the general election, being picked by these voters 77% of the time it was shown.
Separately, in a focus group of Conservative to Labour switchers run by Labour Together on Friday night, participants were unanimous in their despair at the state of public services but positive that investment was now being targeted at the NHS and schools.
One participant from Birmingham told us that "the money that's going to go into the NHS is great" while another commented that "[Rachel Reeves] is trying to make some changes to make things better".
So, the verdict is in. Rachel Reeves was right to prioritise fixing the public finances and targeting investment in the NHS in her budget. But now voters are looking to Labour to deliver tangible changes over the course of this parliament. We at Labour Together will say more in the weeks ahead about what a public sector reform agenda for a Labour government could look like.
Badenoch Blues
Congratulations to Kemi Badenoch. As Keir Starmer said, the first black leader of a Westminster party is a proud moment for the country.
Here at Labour Together we are constantly polling attitudes towards the Tories. Our latest set of results will be no comfort to the new shadow cabinet and suggest that Badenoch is electorally vulnerable amongst key swing voters.
Voters who once lent their vote to Boris Johnson in 2019 but swung towards Keir Starmer in 2024 were markedly unimpressed with the new leader of the Conservative Party.
Among these voters, six in ten (58%) had a somewhat or very unfavourable opinion of Badenoch. Just 6% had a very favourable view. And this is before voters heard her dismiss Boris Johnson’s rule-breaking through lockdown as ‘overblown.’
I wrote in my Sunday Express column that Badenoch’s views on maternity pay, the NHS and minimum wage will cause alarm. Her refusal to apologise for the Liz Truss debacle tells you she would repeat the same mistakes all over again.
Indeed, crucial voters in our focus groups were unimpressed by Badenoch's time in Liz Truss' Cabinet, with one former Conservative voter who voted for Labour in 2024, said: "I can see lots of Liz Truss in her!”Others commented that "she didn't seem genuine", and said that she was "a nightmare" and "out of touch.”
Labour learnt hard lessons from its defeats. In electing Kemi Badenoch the Tories have sent a message to voters that they have learnt nothing at all from theirs.
In the coming days, we’ll be offering our thoughts on the outcome of the US Presidential election and saying more about welfare reform.
Till next time.
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Executive of Labour Together
In case you missed it
Labour challenges Badenoch to back billions for public services and tax rises | The pro-Starmer thinktank Labour Together, which has been conducting research into public perceptions of all the Conservative party leadership candidates, released findings to the Observer suggesting Badenoch may be electorally vulnerable among key swing voters.
Budget 2024: will Labour’s £40bn tax hike backfire? | In this week’s episode of the Political Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by KPMG’s chief economist Yael Selfin, Jonathan Ashworth, chief executive of Keir Starmer’s favoured think tank, Labour Together, and Matthew Lesh of the Institute of Economic Affairs.
Ensuring national renewal is built on local renewal | Wider and deeper devolution would create more empowered communities and support public service reform, writes Labour Together’s director of devolution policy, JP Spencer.
