Monthly newsletter - December 2023
A note from our Director
It’s been quite a year…
At the end of 2022, we were a handful of people thinking about if and how to re-launch Labour Together as a think tank. Today, twelve months on, we’re a thirty-plus team, bringing together a huge diversity of expertise and experience to think about how Labour wins and - should it do so - how it might govern.
We’ve published some work that we’re really proud of this year, exploring public opinion, the state of the nation, and the policies that could make Britain better. In this month’s newsletter, we’ve pulled out some of our favourites for some light Christmas reading.
If there is one thing that we can safely say at the end of this year, it is that the country feels exhausted. Growth is still flatlining, with low productivity to blame (see our Chief Economist Kevin Ferriter’s Building a New Britain for more). Insecurity - financial, local and national - defines life in Britain today (see Josh Williams’s From Security, Comes Hope). The voters who will decide the next election are suffering more than anyone (not least, ‘Stevenage Woman’, who we introduced to Britain’s political debate in April 2023).
But there are rays of hope. Labour has a different view of what Britain could be and how to get there. Rachel Reeves’s vision of “securonomics”, learning lessons from Bidenomics in the United States, is just one example of that. In A New Business Model for Britain, written by the Shadow Chancellor and published by us, she set that out in its fullest form.
As Christabel, our Director of Research, points out later in this newsletter, one thing has not changed. Labour still leads the polls by the same wide margin it did 12 months ago. All Sunak’s attempts at definition and re-definition are falling flat. While there is a long way to go between now and the next election, and plenty of voters yet to make up their minds, it has been a bad year for Sunak and a good one for Starmer.
There’s much work still to be done in 2024, and we’re looking forward to it. For now, however, it is time we all had a bit of a rest. I’d like to end the year by thanking you all for the help and support you’ve given us in the year of our relaunch. I hope to see many of you again in the new year. In the meantime, have a lovely Christmas.
Josh Simons, Director of Labour Together
2023 in the polls
After years of political turbulence, 2023 has been remarkably stable, at least as far as the polls are concerned. Labour started the year around 20 points ahead of the Tories and will end the year around 20 points ahead of the Tories. Several stunning by-election victories where Labour have overturned large majorities across very different types of seat, confirm the accuracy of the opinion polls.
In fact, the biggest polling shift year, has been in Rishi Sunak's personal ratings. He made three separate attempts to reinvent himself, firstly as the moderate pragmatist who negotiated the Windsor Framework, then as a classic right-wing populist promising a hard line on immigration and attacking the costs of the climate transition, and finally as a tax-cutter in the Autumn Statement. The result has been that in January 2023 he was more favourably regarded than the Conservatives, but now he is just as desperately unpopular as his party.
And yet. Around a quarter of Conservative 2019 voters say they do not know who they would vote for at the next election. Most headline opinion polls exclude them from their numbers. But YouGov’s research suggests that many of them will in fact end up voting, and they lean towards returning to the Tories. This could significantly diminish Labour’s lead. Recent by-elections have seen low levels of turnout and the Conservatives will hope that wavering supporters who lacked the motivation to vote in a by-election will end up casting in a vote for them in a General Election. Meanwhile a further 15% to 20% of Conservative 2019 voters say they would support Reform. But poor results for Reform in both local elections and by-elections suggest that this support might not materialise in a General Election either. These voters could be another potential source of support for the Tories.
In short, a volatile electorate with large numbers of voters who say they don’t know who they will vote for, means that Labour cannot go into 2024 with any complacency. Last year Labour Together drew attention to the “Stevenage Woman” group of voters who are the most likely segment to be undecided. In the New Year we will publish further work looking at who the undecided former Tory voters are, and what would persuade them not to return to the Conservatives at the next election. There is still work to do to ensure that 2024 really is a Happy New Year for Labour.
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research at Labour Together
Labour Together in the media
Last week, Josh Simons featured on Sky’s Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge as part of the panel for a two-hour special following parliament voting on the government’s Rwanda plan. Josh also spoke to TalkTV, again about the Rwanda plan and immigration. Labour Together’s other Josh - Williams, Director of Strategy - featured on TalkTV Prime Time with Rosanna Lockwood, while our Director of Research, Christabel Cooper, spoke to Fi Glover and Jane Garvey on Times Radio.
Labour aims to deal crucial first blow to Rishi Sunak in general election year - Mirror
”Director of Strategy Josh Williams said: "Wellingborough has a Tory majority of over 18,000 and overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. If Labour can win in Wellingborough it will be a remarkable victory.”
Wellingborough byelection gives Labour another chance to humiliate Rishi Sunak - Guardian
Labour Together’s director of research, Christabel Cooper, said: “The 2019 general election supposedly demonstrated a ‘great realignment’ in UK politics where socially conservative voters had permanently turned towards the Tories. Even if Labour comes close in Wellingborough it shows that this ‘realignment’ has completely unravelled in the face of an economic and public services crisis.”
Labour grassroots back Starmer’s new stance on gender, allies claim after poll - Observer
”While the issue remains a controversial one within the party, Labour Together, a group closely associated with Starmer, said a new YouGov poll of Labour members it commissioned showed broad support for the leadership’s new line.”
UK must develop quantum computing and drones ‘to beat threat of China and Russia' - iNews
”The report, published on Monday by Sir Keir Starmer-backing think-tank Labour Together, was written by Hamish Falconer, a former Foreign Office official, and is the first of several papers on foreign policy that could feed into the Labour manifesto.”
Unwanted by voters and MPs, Sunak’s Rwanda policy fails every basic political test - CityAM
”Unpopular with voters, the opposition and his own MPs alike, Sunak’s immigration policy has always been misguided, writes Josh Williams, Director of Strategy at Labour Together.”
Will Labour grasp the opportunities of new technology? - New Statesman
The Tories are “starry-eyed and subservient” towards the tech sector, Kirsty Innes, director of technology policy at the think tank Labour Together, tells New Statesman Spotlight, while Labour’s approach is “much more down to Earth”.
Labour Risks Being "Hostage To Fortune" By Attacking Tories On Immigration - Politics Home
“The brave thing to do [on immigration], instead of announcing another ineffective, expensive, cruel, short-term fix is to address the underlying problem — a lack of investment in infrastructure and British workers, says Josh Simons, Director of Labour Together”
Storm before the storm - POLITICO
“The total [Rwanda] deal so far (£240 million) is now equivalent to 19 percent of Rwanda’s total exports, according to Labour Together’s chief economist Kevin Ferriter.”
Angela Rayner reveals her Live Laugh Love motto - Evening Standard
”Labour had a swanky Christmas party at County Hall last night, laid on by campaign group Labour Together and the Daily Mirror.”
Cleverly takes a swipe at the Spartans - Spectator
”Across town, it was the turn of Cleverly’s opposite number, Yvette Cooper, to take to the stage at the Labour Together drinks with the Daily Mirror”
Boris Johnson takes the COVID-19 dock - POLITICO
”A poll by Labour Together, seen by Playbook, said 23 percent of voters felt the Tory party under Johnson better reflected their views, compared with 18 percent who feel closer to the Tories today — 51 percent said it made no difference.”
Five things to watch out for at Cop28 - New Statesman
”Britain’s regional inequality is worse than any other developed country due to low productivity which causes lower social mobility, a Labour Together report argues. The paper says a Labour government could focus investment on energy independence, homes and infrastructure.”
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