Monthly newsletter - November 2023
The past month at Labour Together
A note from our Director
The Conservatives went back to the future this month.
First, we had the return of David Cameron, perhaps the only unifying figure in British politics: everyone dislikes him.
Next, we had Jeremy Hunt announcing his Autumn statement. We had short-term tax cuts today, funded by swingeing public service cuts to come. Even with all that, debt will continue to rise unless the Tories unfreeze fuel rates in the Spring (which they won’t) and taxes will too (because tax brackets are not moving with inflation).
Perhaps most importantly, there was no real plan for growth and so nothing to address the huge challenges Britain faces. This month, we published a new paper on exactly that topic: ‘Building a New Britain’, by our chief economist, Kevin Ferriter.
The paper reveals the shocking state of Britain’s economy, but also how new investment in the public realm - across energy, housing and infrastructure - could rebuild Britain. The report introduces fresh analysis from Ferriter, including the £5,000 more that families would be earning each year - if only productivity had grown at the rate it could and should have done.
This was just one of a number of new publications from Labour Together in November.
Also released ahead of Rishi Sunak’s AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park, was ‘AI-pocalypse Now’. This paper, by LT newcomers Emily Middleton and Kirsty Innes, shows that the British public is excited by the opportunities that technology can provide, but remains wary of AI.
Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the government’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was unlawful, although Rishi Sunak has since continued to try to make the scheme work. He might want to have a look at our recent polling which shows that including Rwanda among the Conservative policies to tackle asylum numbers reduces support for their plans. The polling also revealed that Labour’s five point plan on illegal migration was much more popular than the Tory policies, whether they included Rwanda or not.
This follows further polling we carried out a few weeks earlier, which showed that significant numbers of Conservative voters who saw both Labour’s plan and a Tory attack on the plan (paraphrased from a Suella Braverman article) switched their voting intention to Reform. These switchers will be hardline migration-sceptics who are deeply unhappy with the government’s failure to tackle illegal migration. This seems at odds with a government that has been so keen to raise the importance of immigration as an issue, particularly with new figures showing net migration hitting a record high.
There has been a lot of talk about whether Rishi Sunak is gearing up for a Spring election. Based on what we’ve published this month, he’d be brave to do so…
Josh Simons, Director of Labour Together
Building a New Britain
A new report by Labour Together’s chief economist, Kevin Ferriter.
AI-pocalypse? No.
A paper by our tech policy leads, Emily Middleton and Kirsty Innes.
A view on the polls
Headline voting intention polls have been remarkably steady since the beginning of the year. Labour started 2023 with an average vote share of 46% and now has a vote share of 45%. The Conservatives began the year on 25% and remain on 25%.
Rishi Sunak had three chances to turn his fortunes around – in October at Tory party conference, in the King’s Speech and in the Autumn Statement yesterday. The first two passed by without making any impression on Labour’s poll lead. Will the National Insurance cut announced in the Autumn Statement make a significant difference to households who are already crippled by inflation and an overall rising tax burden? Sunak and Hunt had better hope so.
As the polls stand right now, election models are predicting a Labour landslide on the scale of 1997. But, these models should be taken with a hefty dose of salt. They exclude a large number of 2019 Conservative voters who are currently saying they “don’t know” who they will vote for, and who may well return to the party at a General Election. The Conservatives would still lose an election held right now, but probably less heavily than is often predicted.
But of course, the election will not be held right now – and could be held as late as January 2025. A lot could happen before then. Voters are highly volatile and can change their minds even during the short weeks of an election campaign (as happened in 2017). Labour still has a lot of hard work ahead to give them the best shot at victory.
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research at Labour Together
Labour Together in the media
Last week, Josh Simons talked to Julia Hartley-Brewer on TalkTV looking ahead to the autumn statement, before reacting to the announcements on Times Radio and Bloomberg’s politics podcast. Josh also featured on the panel for Sky’s Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge, where he covered new figures which show that net migration to the UK is at a record high.
Earlier this month Josh Simons was again on Times Radio, this time with Ayesha Hazarika, talking about why a focus on private investment is essential to “put money in the pockets” of the nation. Our Chief Economist, Kevin Ferriter, featured on Bloomberg’s UK Politics podcast speaking about his new paper, ‘Building a New Britain’.
Meet the Labour think tank guiding Keir Starmer’s path to power - POLITICO
”Labour Together has evolved into a highly influential think tank quietly shaping the direction of the party which, according to current polling, is on course to form the next government.”
Analysis: Where does the Autumn Statement leave Labour? - CityAM
”Labour Together’s Josh Williams branded it “short-term game playing” and a “return to austerity”, adding: “Our tax burden is still on course to reach a post-war high.”
Rwanda: ‘Labour can persuade voters of alternatives, but it needs to get heard’ - Labour List
”Labour’s own plan to control Channel Crossings has the potential – if voters hear about it – to be rather better received than the Rwanda plan, as new YouGov polling conducted by Labour Together shows.”
Voters give brutal one word verdict on the Conservative Party's immigration plans - Daily Mirror
”A poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Labour Together asked the public to describe Rishi Sunak's immigration policies in their own words as the Rwanda plan was ruled unlawful.”
How levelling-up Labour aims to woo back red-wall Tories - Sunday Times
"A think tank plans to trump Boris Johnson’s key policy by focusing on boosting productivity and wages outside London.”
David Cameron is a symbol of a broken economic model - New Statesman
”In a new report, Labour Together has looked at why Britain’s economic policy regime has failed over the past 13 years, and how we can fix it.”
King’s Speech unpacked - POLITICO London Influence
”And a swathe of new hires for Labour Together including Matthew Upton who joins as director of policy from Citizens Advice; Jess Sargeant is now director of constitutional change after a spell at the Institute for Government; and Jon Garvie got going as director of geopolitics after working as practice director at Global Counsel.”
UK faces ‘mammoth’ infrastructure investment challenge - CityAM
”The Labour Together report called Building a New Britain argues Britain’s poor productivity – the worst of any developed country – is down to a lack of investment in infrastructure, energy and housing. This is leading to the average worker being £4,750 out of pocket each year.”
Can Keir Starmer plant the seeds of growth? - Prospect
”Liz Truss gave growth a bad name. But Starmer is resuscitating its brand. And Labour finally has a growth philosophy, set out by Rachel Reeves in “A New Business Model for Britain”, published by think tank Labour Together in May this year”
Swearing and oaths — COVID Inquiry rumbles on - POLITICO London Playbook
”… and 71 percent told a Labour Together/YouGov poll they are worried about AI threatening “humanity’s interests.”
Rishi Sunak plays politics on energy - POLITICO London Playbook
”Britain’s regional inequality is worse than any other developed country due to low productivity which causes lower social mobility, a Labour Together report argues. The paper says a Labour government could focus investment on energy independence, homes and infrastructure.”
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