A wide Labour lead hides reasons for caution
Over the past two years, wide polling leads for the Labour party have become the norm. Typical seat projections with these figures result in a Labour landslide and Conservative wipeout. Now, new analysis by Labour Together has modelled two scenarios which show there is cause for caution despite Labour’s wide lead.
In our latest poll, conducted by YouGov earlier this month, Labour recorded a 20-point lead. If there were an election tomorrow, that would deliver a 1997-style Labour landslide.
Labour Together considers that scenario unlikely, for three main reasons:
The share of voters who currently say they “don’t know” how they will vote is large (17%), and in most elections, these voters return to the party they voted for the last time around.
The strength of the Reform vote feels questionable, given past experience of upstart parties (like UKIP) who have underperformed their poll position at the ballot box.
We think that the support of some of those who have switched to the Labour Party from the Conservatives could still be ‘soft-switchers’.
For this reason, we have explored what would happen in two scenarios.
Scenario 1: A Realistic Projection
Scenario 1 represents what we believe is a more accurate view of what would happen if there was an election tomorrow. Many “don’t knows” return to the party they supported at the last election. Wavering switchers, whose support for either Labour or Reform is close to their level of support for the Conservatives, switch back.
This scenario would see Labour’s lead over the Conservatives reduced to 13 points. Projecting this into seats, using the Britain Predicts calculator, gives Labour 364 seats and a majority of 78. While this is still high, it is far lower than the 192-seat majority predicted based on current voting intention.
Scenario 2: A Reform Collapse
In Scenario 2, we explore what would happen if the insurgent right-wing Reform UK collapses, either because Sunak delivers on his promises on immigration, because Reform’s own fortunes fall dramatically, or perhaps they choose not to stand against the Conservatives (as their predecessor, the Brexit Party, did in 2019). This would result in a dramatic narrowing of the vote.
In this scenario, Labour’s lead would be cut to 4 points, with the Conservatives picking up 36% of the vote to Labour’s 40%. In this scenario, although Labour would be the largest party, Britain would have a hung parliament, with Labour picking up 312 seats, 14 short of a majority. While this is not a likely scenario, it shows the importance of Reform’s vote, and the cost to Labour of a Reform, collapse.
While the data still all points to a Labour victory, we also set out the case for caution. A few small shifts in voter behaviour could shrink Labour’s lead significantly. A more dramatic change, such as the collapse of Reform, could wipe out the prospect of a majority entirely. It’s been a good end to a difficult week for the Labour Party. But there’s a long way between now and the next election. However wide the poll leads might look today, a Labour majority is far from certain.
Methodology and data tables
Labour Together commissioned YouGov to poll a nationally and politically representative sample of 2314 Britons (18+). YouGov weighted responses to ensure representativeness. Labour Together conducted further analysis using respondent level data for the polling provided to us by YouGov and modelled two hypothetical scenarios.
In scenario one, current voting intention Labour voters who voted Conservative in 2019 and had a propensity to vote for Labour that was within three points of propensity to vote for Conservatives were reassigned a voting intention of Conservative. Current voting intention Reform UK with a propensity to vote for Reform UK that was within three points of propensity to vote for Conservatives were reassigned a voting intention of Conservative. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 who currently say ‘don’t know’ in voting intention and did not have a propensity to vote for any other party that surpassed that of their propensity to vote Conservative were reassigned a voting intention of Conservative.
In scenario two, the same approach was taken, except that all current voting intention Reform UK voters were re-assigned a voting intention of Conservative.
Note that weighting applied for the purpose of this analysis did not account for turnout likelihood, and so topline figures may differ somewhat from YouGov's headline voting intention point estimates.
For more information about Labour Together’s polling methodology, please click here
